It looks that the Cold War over Syria or on Syria is increasing after the shooting of the Russian fighter. It is not the first time that it happens. Remember Patrick Seale and his famous book: “The struggle for Syria” (1965).
Syria being the pivot power of the Middle East but today more than ever it is the struggle for Syria. Is so bloody and so dreadful that I doubt that a so called peaceful political solution is possible. One of the main reasons is that the ruler of Syria is detached from certain realities and thinks that he is indispensable, although now it is the whole of Syria that is at stake.
From one side the Russians and the Iranians, maybe having different agendas. As for the presence of Bashar and the unity of Syria, the Russians with their traditional historical relationship with the the Syrian army, prefer ultimately the unity of Syria, while the Iranians might adapt to a fragmented Syria, like the Iraqi situation. But what I am saying is purely speculation.
The Turks with their aim of controlling northern Syria so to counterbalance Iranian presence and the unclear American intentions. I wonder if Mr Kerry could tell us something clearer, but Obama’s reluctance to help the Syrian oppositions from the beginning, lef to this chaotic situation in Syria.
And finally Israeli interests or designs based historically on partioning the Middle East. This is a broad approach as I see it today, after the shooting of the Russian jet, that will lead to the escalation of the Cold War over Syria.
I would advice the Russians to be careful so not to be dragged into another Afghanistan.
As for the ruler of Syria, well he looks like similar dictators detached from realities. They call it the ‘bunker mentality’ reminding me of Adolf Hitler in his last weeks giving orders to fictitious armies.
Poor Syria, and what an ordeal the Syrian people are going through and not yet finished. This is why, let us protect Lebanon away from trivial stupid local considerations.
As for the Americans and their allies, I do see similar differences. As I said it is a purely personal analysis, maybe based on wrong assumptions, but worth considering.