It could be said that two remedies are being suggested to us, with some transgression, we call them: one French, another American.
The French remedy is conservative, leaving things as they are and focusing on corruption and relief. The rulers remain the same, with some adjustments, primarily rotation between ministries. Respect for the legitimacy of the parliament elected before the revolution and the crime at the port is maintained. Hezbollah’s weapons are not affected and expressing the “disagreement” with it is enough.
In other words: with the French, we are before an attempt to combat corruption without addressing its causes. The possibility of what happened being repeated remains, even if we are to receive help that “puts the country’s economy back on its feet.”
Some may go further in discovering the virtues of “moderation”, explaining the benefits of Hezbollah’s possession of weapons; it prevents the eruption of civil war, which requires two armed parties. Here, another, perhaps more important, fact is overlooked: the presence of these arms hinders civil peace as well, and leaves the country constantly shaking from sporadic localized bursts of violence. This is without forgetting another fact: In light of these weapons, the possibility of suffering the ramifications of regional violence, especially Israeli strikes, persists, and is even pressing. An event of the magnitude of the port explosion may be one of those ramifications.
Ignoring these dangers is not the fault of Emmanuel Macron in as much as it is that of Lebanon’s failure to enact change. Avoiding this failure could have strengthened Macron’s position vis-à-vis the Lebanese regime’s figures and pushed him to submit more radical proposals.
But, in all cases, the French remedy remains so fragile and weak that Nabih Berri, under the pretext of the Ministry of Finance, or any other sectarian leader, can disrupt and cancel it. Even if a new government is formed, the sword of “national convention”, a twisted interpretation of it, would continue to hang over its head. If we add the sword of Hezbollah and its weapons, which could be used at any moment, the abundance of talk about “facilitating” the formation of the government, “facilitating” its work and “not obstructing it,” stops being taken seriously.
The American remedy, in sharp contrast, is radical. Unleashing sanctions. Forget aid and relief, what is required, if not the head of Hezbollah’s weapons, then the head of its position in political life and representation in government. While Paris says the party was elected by many Lebanese and is represented in parliament, Washington says that it is a terrorist organization that kills Americans, oversees drug smuggling networks and engages in other criminal activity. On top of that, according to the Americans, Hezbollah is an Iranian force that undermines US plans in the region, the most important of which today is making the paths to peace and normalization between Arab states and Israel.