السبت، 12 تموز 2025
FacebookXInstagramYouTube
logo
الرئيسية

الأخبار

محليات
عربي دولي
إقتصاد
خاص
رياضة
من لبنان
ثقافة ومجتمع
منوعات

آراء

موقف الأنباء
كتّاب الأنباء
منبر
مختارات
صحافة أجنبية
بريد القرّاء
فيديو

مواقف

وليد جنبلاط
تيمور جنبلاط
التقدّمي
الحزب
ابحث
تغطية مباشرة
logo
  • الرئيسية
    • محليات
    • عربي دولي
    • إقتصاد
    • خاص
    • رياضة
    • من لبنان
      • تربية وأدب
      • تكنولوجيا
      • متفرقات
      • صحّة
      • موضة وفنّ
    • موقف الأنباء
    • كتّاب الأنباء
    • منبر
    • مختارات
    • صحافة أجنبية
    • بريد القرّاء
  • فيديو
      • مواقف وليد جنبلاط
      • Commentary
    • تيمور جنبلاط
    • التقدّمي
  • الحزب
  • ابحث
Logo
  • من نحن
  • إتصل بنا
  • لإعلاناتكم
  • سياسة الخصوصية
  • أرشيف الأنباء القديم
flareتصدر عن الحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي
المركز الرئيسي للحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي
وطى المصيطبة، شارع جبل العرب، الطابق الثالث
+961 1 309123 / +961 3 070124
+961 1 318119 :FAX
[email protected]
ص.ب: 11-2893 رياض الصلح
14-5287 المزرعة
موقعنا على الخريطة

حمّل تطبيق الأنباء
Google Play download nowApple download now
© 2025 All Rights Reserved | Designed & Developed by Le/Labo/Digital
Website logo

Türkiye-Syria Rapprochement Still Distant

14 كانون الأول 2022

08:05

آخر تحديث:14 كانون الأول 202210:51

صحافة أجنبيةAsharq Al AwsatRobert Ford
Türkiye-Syria Rapprochement Still Distant
Türkiye-Syria Rapprochement Still Distant

Article Content

There has been much media speculation about a rapprochement between Syria and Türkiye. Russian officials, including the Kremlin spokesman and the Russian presidential envoy to Syria last Friday said Moscow is trying to arrange a meeting between Presidents Erdogan and Assad. I don’t expect to see a photograph soon with a somber Erdogan shaking hands with a smiling Assad in Moscow.


Erdogan and Assad agree on only one issue: both reject real autonomy for the Syrian Kurdish regions. At the November meeting about Syria in Astana, the Turks again agreed with Assad’s allies, the Iranians and the Russians, to resist “further separatist plans aimed at undermining Syrian territorial integrity and threatening the national security of neighboring countries.”


The message is aimed at the Syrian Kurdish faction PYD and its “People Protection” militia, connected to the PKK, who manage the autonomous administration in northeast Syria under an American military umbrella.


The Americans in the short-term will stay unless the PYD and its militia tell them to go. The PYD so far has succeeded in balancing between Washington on one side and Damascus and Moscow on the other to deter a full-scale Turkish invasion.


Russia has spoken about returning to the 1998 Adana agreement that ejected the PKK from Syria but achieving that return is not in sight.


Russia and Syria so far refuse to fight the PYD and its militia. The autonomous administration survives.


In addition, it is almost 2023, and restoring an old agreement from 1998, even if it were possible, will not enable a Türkiye-Syria rapprochement. Both sides have deeper grievances than they did 25 years ago. Ankara has to doubt that the Syrian government can actually control all of northern Syria. Damascus cannot even control Daraa, an hour’s drive from Damascus. How will it control Qamishli, 400 miles from the capital?


In addition, Turkish foreign minister Cavusoglu on November 8 conditioned a resumption of political talks on ensuring the safe return of Syrian refugees from Türkiye back to Syria. Turkish intelligence chief Hakan Fidan emphasized this refugee issue when he met Syrian intelligence official Ali Mamlouk in September. Fidan stayed two days in Damascus. That is a long visit, but Turkish statements indicate no big progress on bilateral relations.


It is worth remembering that while the Damascus government has officially welcomed the return of refugees, Assad also said in 2017 that Syria is stronger and more homogenous after their departure. He doesn’t want all those refugees back. Where would they live? Where would they find jobs? How would they find food? How could the Assad government trust all of them?


Damascus won’t trust them and it won’t issue guarantees about their safety to Fidan, Cavusoglu and Erdogan. And Assad won’t accept safe zones in Syria for refugees under Turkish control. He wants the Turk soldiers out of Syria. There are many stories of Syrians who formally reconciled with the government who later died under torture in detention. The 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye know this. Ankara does not want nightly television around the world to show screaming refugees forced at gunpoint to cross back over the border into Syria.


The refugee issue is huge but there are other difficult issues. What to do about the displaced Syrians near the Turkish border and their safety? What will Türkiye do with thousands of Syrian rebel fighters that it has sponsored? Where will they go? It is impossible to imagine that all the opposition fighters will voluntarily surrender to the mercy of the Syrian security forces. Ankara wants to avoid the bitterness and fighting that will follow its abandoning the Syrian opposition.


Turkish foreign minister Cavusoglu in August said the Syrian opposition must reconcile with Assad. And in November he said that progress must be made on these issues before talks between Ankara and Damascus can move from the level of intelligence directors to a “political level.” Ankara wants the Syrian opposition and Assad to accept compromises.


Assad’s father Hafez was known for his patience and the son has learned it too. Media reports suggest Bashar is in no hurry to meet and give a political boost to his old friend Erdogan.


Assad’s government has never made political compromises in this civil war. Instead, he waits and watches strong Turkish opposition attacks on Erdogan’s entire Syria policy. Those opposition parties call for a fast political opening with Damascus. Assad probably hopes that if the Turkish opposition wins in the June elections, he can get an agreement to eliminate Turkish support for rebel fighters more easily and thereby gain a little more leverage with the PYD.


Therefore, the Syrian president politely declines Putin’s invitation to come for a photograph with Erdogan. We should remember that even leaders of weak states sometimes can say, “no, thank you.”

flare decoration

إعلان

يتم عرض هذا الإعلان بواسطة إعلانات Google، ولا يتحكم موقعنا في الإعلانات التي تظهر لكل مستخدم.

إعلان

يتم عرض هذا الإعلان بواسطة إعلانات Google، ولا يتحكم موقعنا في الإعلانات التي تظهر لكل مستخدم.

Advertisement Section

https://almabani.com/home

أحدث الفيديوهات

بالفيديو: إطلاق موسم صيف ٢٠٢٥... الشوف بإنتظاركم

فيديو

تقرير

بالفيديو: إطلاق موسم صيف ٢٠٢٥... الشوف بإنتظاركم

بالفيديو: "لبنان على السكّة"... رسامني يكشف لـ"الأنباء" تفاصيل خطة ترميم الطرقات والجسور

فيديو

تقرير

بالفيديو: "لبنان على السكّة"... رسامني يكشف لـ"الأنباء" تفاصيل خطة ترميم الطرقات والجسور

بالفيديو: قصر بيت الدين بحلّة جديدة... وزارة الثقافة تطلق أعمال الترميم بعد متابعة من نورا جنبلاط

فيديو

تقرير

بالفيديو: قصر بيت الدين بحلّة جديدة... وزارة الثقافة تطلق أعمال الترميم بعد متابعة من نورا جنبلاط

مقالات أخرى للكاتب

The Great Powers Are Not So Strong

الأربعاء، 01 شباط 2023


The Illusions of Process in Syria

الثلاثاء، 10 كانون الثاني 2023


Biden and Xi Jinping and Muawiya

الثلاثاء، 22 تشرين الثاني 2022


Biden’s Big Challenges After These Elections

الثلاثاء، 08 تشرين الثاني 2022


Do Americans Have the Right to Boycott Israel?

الخميس، 27 تشرين الأول 2022


Hey Washington, It’s a New Century in the Region

الخميس، 29 أيلول 2022