Trump’s Iran deal move spells disaster for the region
Cesar Chelala/ The Daily Star
11 مايو 2018
President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the deal with Iran creates, unnecessarily, a new source of tension in a region besieged by conflicts. Given the level of legal troubles that Trump is facing now, his decision could be based to some extent in creating the conditions to fog his personal drama.
President Trump’s move was heartily supported by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and opposed by all other governments that are part of the deal. In March 2015, in front of both houses of the U.S. Congress, Netanyahu said, “We’ve been told that no deal is better than a bad deal. Well, this is a bad deal. It’s a very bad deal. We’re better off without it.”
For the last several decades, relations between the U.S. and Iran and between Iran and the West have been shrouded in misconceptions and prejudices. The West has done nothing to achieve a peaceful relationship with that country, which has only led to a permanent state of distrust that would lead to war at any moment.
Conflicting relations with Iran can be traced to a large extent to Aug. 19, 1953, when both the United Kingdom and the U.S. orchestrated a coup that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh. The reason: Mossadegh was trying to audit the books of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, a British corporation, to change the terms of that company’s access to Iranian oil.
Following the refusal of AIOC to cooperate with the Iranian government, the Iranian Parliament voted almost unanimously to nationalize AIOC and expel its representatives from Iran. The anti-government coup that ensued led to the formation of a military government under Gen. Fazlollah Zahedi, which allowed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to return and rule the country as an absolute and ruthless monarch.
Sixty years after the coup, the American Central Intelligence Agency finally admitted that it had been involved in both the planning and the execution of the coup that caused mostly civilian casualties. That coup and the U.S. behavior toward Arab governments throughout the region are behind the anti-American sentiment not only in Iran but throughout the Middle East.
I wonder how we, in the United States, would have reacted if China and Russia, for example, would have plotted to overthrow a democratic American government, leaving a chaotic situation in its wake. In addition, while Iran has not invaded another country in centuries, both the U.S. and Israel, Iran’s enemies, have led brutal wars against other countries and peoples.
U.S. interference in Iranian affairs didn’t end there. In September 1980, Saddam Hussein started a war against Iran that had devastating consequences for both countries. The war was characterized by Iraq’s indiscriminate ballistic-missile attacks and extensive use of chemical weapons.
The war resulted in at least half a million and probably twice as many troops killed on both sides, and in at least half a million men who became permanently disabled. The U.S. actively supported Saddam Hussein in his war efforts with billions of dollars in credits, advanced technology, weaponry, military intelligence and special operations training
Given this background, however, rather than following a policy of appeasement, Trump nixed the nuclear agreement with Iran that goes contrary to the U.S.’ own long-term political and economic interests in the region. And they have a faithful ally in Netanyahu.
Not all Israeli military and intelligence officials share Netanyahu’s negative view on the nuclear deal. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, the current Israel Army chief of staff, said in an interview to mark Israel’s 70th anniversary, “Right now, the agreement, with all its faults, is working and is putting off realization of the Iran nuclear vision by 10 to 15 years. With the deal in place, the window of strategic opportunity is still open in our favor.”
A similar opinion was stated by Amos Gilad, former research chief in the U.S. military intelligence and former director of the policy and military affairs division at the Defense Ministry. He went as far as to say that the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 agreement would probably benefit Iran more than Israel and added, “If the Americans abandon the agreement, they have to prepare for alternatives, and I don’t see this being done.”
Reimposition of sanctions will certainly affect Iran’s capacity to conduct economic deals with other countries and as a result worsen that country’s already serious economic situation.
But it would also raise tensions in the Middle East, deepen the conflict between Israel and Iran, and even affect a possible agreement with North Korea, which may consider the U.S. to be unreliable and unable to keep its word.