On Monday, Kremlin-sponsored peace talks meant to strengthen a fragile ceasefire between the Syrian government and rebels stumbled out of the gate in Astana, Kazakhstan. As a first test of Moscow’s ability to throw its diplomatic weight around in the region, it’s proving tough going for Russia.

First, the rebel delegation refused to talk face to face with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s negotiators. Then, Assad’s negotiator traded barbs with opposition negotiator Mohammed Alloush after he accused Assad of violating the truce. “We haven’t seen any signs of commitment to the ceasefire; there should be clarity and agreement on this first,” opposition spokesperson Yahya al-Aridi told Al Jazeera.

The head of Assad’s delegation, Bashar al-Jaafari, accused opposition negotiators of representing “terrorist organizations.” He also downplayed Turkey’s role in the talks because of its support for rebel groups in northern Syria. “Turkey is violating Syrian sovereignty, so there is no Syrian-Turkish dialogue,” he said.

Despite the diplomatic harangues, Russia pushed forward a new agreement with Iran and Turkey to jointly “fight against the IS and al-Nusra and their separation from the armed opposition groups,” according to a draft communique expected to be signed on Tuesday in Astana.

The draft communique also said Russia, Iran, and Turkey would back a separate round of U.N.-brokered peace talks between the Syrian government and rebel forces in Geneva on Feb. 8. The U.N. framed the talks in Astana as a “stepping stone” to the upcoming talks in Geneva, though Western leaders expressed concern Russia could be trying to supplant the Geneva talks to chart Syria’s future course on its own terms. The U.N. has repeatedly tried and failed to end the Syrian conflict, which has killed 300,000 and displaced 11 million since it began five years ago.

Russia, which backed Assad’s regime with a military operation starting in 2015, hoped the Astana talks could yield more progress than the usual U.N.-brokered talks because of three big changes in the Syria conflict.

First, Moscow forged a new and unlikely alliance with Turkey to fight ISIS — despite the fact that Turkey repeatedly called for Assad’s ouster and backs rebel forces. Second, new U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would refocus U.S. efforts to work with Russia on fighting ISIS over removing Assad. (Though Trump did not send a representative to the talks in Astana; the U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan is observing.) And third, Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city and the rebels’ main stronghold, fell to government forces in December — a signal the tide was turning in favor of Assad’s eventual victory.

“Everything has changed since Aleppo,” a Western diplomat told BBC. “There’s a new equation.”

But Russia may learn, if the first day of talks are any indication, that it’s an equation with no easy answers.